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Patrick Condon was a master planner for Vancouver in its initial densification. He is sounding the alarm that increasing density without affordability only further inflates urban land values to the benefit of speculators,
Patrick M. Condon sees the past repeating itself.; already the third most expensive city in the world, new plans to further densify are shortsighted. They are based on the disproven assumption that adding new luxury housing units will lead to affordability, which is not supported by evidence.
We Zoned for Density and Got Higher House Prices: Supply and Price Effects of Upzoning over 20 Years
National Bureau of Economic Research
AN ALPHA IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING?
Patrick Condon and David Fields
The Illusion of YIMBY/Abundance
https://utahvanguard.medium.com/the-illusion-of-yimby-abundance-0ac938f769fa
population stable out to 2060M
We Should Weigh the Welfare Impacts of Luxury Housing by Income Level
Harms to Low Income Renters May Outweigh Benefits
https://open.substack.com/pub/harlo/p/who-benefits-from-building?r=1jzycv&utm_medium=ios
Its main finding is that zoning reforms, introduced over the last decade and a half, which loosen restrictions on development, are associated with a very small increase in housing supply, but not with a reduction in housing costs or with greater availability of lower-cost units.
As satisfying watch as city leaders in the San Diego area directly tell the deputy director of HCD just how this all plays out: market realities, hazards, lack of buildable land, unrealistic numbers, and stacked deck counting methods have set them up to fail RHNA spectacularly. A ten minute watch will explain a lot, but you’ll probably be compelled to finish the whole 25 minute segment.
Start at the 44 minute mark:
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