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legitimate research supporting our position

Papers, studies, Links

Patrick Condon

Patrick Condon

Patrick Condon

Patrick Condon was a master planner for Vancouver in its initial densification. He is sounding the alarm that increasing density without affordability only further inflates urban land values to the benefit of speculators, 

https://www.planningreport.com/2021/02/18/patrick-condon-density-affordability-hungry-dogs-land-price-speculation

Patrick Condon

Patrick Condon

Patrick Condon

Patrick M. Condon sees the past repeating itself.; already the third most expensive city in the world, new plans to further densify are shortsighted. They are based on the disproven assumption that adding new luxury housing units will lead to affordability, which is not supported by evidence. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ3wuo01Cxo

20 year study

Patrick Condon

National Bureau of Economic Research

We Zoned for Density and Got Higher House Prices: Supply and Price Effects of Upzoning over 20 Years

https://doi.org/10.1080/08111146.2022.2124966

National Bureau of Economic Research

National Bureau of Economic Research

National Bureau of Economic Research

National Bureau of Economic Research

AN ALPHA IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING?

http://www.nber.org/papers/w33470

Tony Dutzik

National Bureau of Economic Research

Condon and Fields

The oroblems of Abundance explored.

The problems of "Abundance"


Condon and Fields

National Bureau of Economic Research

Condon and Fields

Patrick Condon and David Fields

The Illusion of YIMBY/Abundance

https://utahvanguard.medium.com/the-illusion-of-yimby-abundance-0ac938f769fa

Shortage is in affordable housing

Shortage is in affordable housing

Shortage is in affordable housing

Gaetan Lyon
https://medium.com/@gaetanlion/california-does-not-have-a-housing-supply-shortage-a4d4fa4a162b

Shortage is in affordable housing

Shortage is in affordable housing

Shortage is in affordable housing

Mike Krings

https://news.ku.edu/news/article/study-finds-us-does-not-have-housing-shortage-but-shortage-of-affordable-housing

Federal Reserve Bank

Official State Population Projections

Official State Population Projections

Federal Reserve Bank

https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/working-papers/2025/03/supply-constraints-do-not-explain-house-price-and-quantity-growth-across-u-s-cities

Official State Population Projections

Official State Population Projections

Official State Population Projections

California Department of Finance

population stable out to 2060M

https://dof.ca.gov/forecasting/demographics/projections/

Harlo Pippinger

Official State Population Projections

Population Projections

We Should Weigh the Welfare Impacts of Luxury Housing by Income Level

Harms to Low Income Renters May Outweigh Benefits

https://open.substack.com/pub/harlo/p/who-benefits-from-building?r=1jzycv&utm_medium=ios

Population Projections

Zoning doesn’t increase affordability

Population Projections

San Jose Mercury

California Exodus: Population projected to stay the same through 2060

Zoning doesn’t increase affordability

Zoning doesn’t increase affordability

Zoning doesn’t increase affordability

Governing/Urban Institute

https://www.governing.com/community/zoning-changes-small-impact-on-housing-supply-affordability-study

Its main finding is that zoning reforms, introduced over the last decade and a half, which loosen restrictions on development, are associated with a very small increase in housing supply, but not with a reduction in housing costs or with greater availability of lower-cost units.

SANDAG VIDEO

Zoning doesn’t increase affordability

Zoning doesn’t increase affordability

Local Electeds explain to HCD why their cities are failing mid-cycle review  

As satisfying watch as city leaders in the San Diego area directly tell the deputy director of HCD just how this all plays out: market realities, hazards, lack of buildable land, unrealistic numbers, and stacked deck counting methods have set them up to fail RHNA spectacularly. A ten minute watch will explain a lot, but you’ll probably be compelled to finish the whole 25 minute segment. 

Start at the 44 minute mark:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arKeg7IFk7w

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