Signed in as:
filler@godaddy.com
6th CYCLE RHNA: Impossible numbers
RHNA and Housing Elements
California has 8 year housing cycles, and localities are tasked by the HCD (California Department of Housing and Community Development) with demonstrating they have the capacity for the housing assigned in their RHNA (Regional Housing Needs Allocation ) — by submitting a required “housing element” document. But the rules have changed in this, the 6th cycle. Numbers are larger — as much as 20x more housing is mandated. And cities are no longer just required to zone for and site the housing, a developer must actually pull a permit to build it or it’s not counted. Cities have no control over that process, but they are penalized heavily if they fail to get certification of their housing elements. Localities appealed the larger numbers, but all appeals were rejected. Based on city concerns and discrepancies, two audits were requested.
LET'S START WITH REAL NUMBERS:
The state demands 2.5 million more residences by 2031, regardless of each city’s actual needs. Why? The California Department of Finance refuted the numbers in 2023 — projections show the population will not grow 7+ million by 2031; it‘s projected almost flat through 2060. That’s not due to lack of housing. It’s due to our aging population, declining birth rates, economic realities, higher outmigration, and lower in-migration.
In other words, the mandates are based on “aspirations,” not need.
But the HCD isn’t backing off the outrageous numbers, instead supporting ”ad hoc” methodology that intentionally over burdens cities . See the blog post “Think those RHNA numbers are based on something scientific?”
https://citizenmarin.org/blog/f/think-those-rhna-numbers-are-based-on-something-scientific
TWO HCD AUDITS, TWO FAILURES
Request Letter for HCD/RHNA Audit
Request Letter for Housing Element Audit
Full letter here:
Full report here:
https://www.auditor.ca.gov/reports/responses-2024-109-all/
HCD reply here: